Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2030: Demographie bremst mittelfristiges Wachstum
An aging society and persistently weak productivity growth weigh heavily on the medium-term economic outlook. By 2030, growth in potential output is expected to decline to just above zero. In the course of the cyclical recovery, the economy is likely to enter a phase of overutilization as early as 2027. After the capital stock has contracted for several years, it is expected to expand again over the medium-term horizon. Major sources of uncertainty for the forecast stem from the speed of outflow of the budgetary resources of the Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality, from a further escalation of the Iran war, and from the international trading environment. Overall, growth over the projection horizon is expected to be historically exceptionally weak.
Kotz, S., C. Krause and T. Schmidt (2026), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2030: Demographie bremst mittelfristiges Wachstum. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 77, A02