Project

Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the key indicators used to describe overall economic development in Germany. For this reason, it is necessary to have reliable estimates available as early as possible. However, the data required to calculate GDP is made available at different times with delays. This results in a conflict of objectives between proximity to the reporting period and accuracy of the estimate. At the federal state level, the initial publication of GDP for a given year takes place three months after the end of the year on the basis of updates (FS). Since this calculation is largely based on preliminary data, subsequent publications sometimes require significant revisions until the first original calculation (OB, t+27 months).

For this reason, this project is examining ways of reducing the accuracy of the initial estimate and thus the extent of the revisions. In order to develop an understanding of the areas in which the revisions are more significant than in others, GDP and gross value added (GVA) at industry classification level A*10 are included in the study. The data are considered in nominal and real terms, as well as in levels and rates of change. The aim is to keep the first publication (t+3 months) as stable as possible compared to the first original calculation (t+27 months). Due to its high public significance, the main focus is on the need to revise the rate of change in price-adjusted GDP. However, the analysis must include all of the above-mentioned GVA time series for all federal states.

Project start:
31. December 2022

Project end:
30. January 2024

Project staff:
Clara Krause, Dr. Boris Blagov

Funding:
Information und Technik Nordrhein-Westfalen