Export Growth and Demographic Changes: Evidence from Vietnam
This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation’s export growth. Our results indicate that young women (aged 18-28) in provinces more exposed to export tariff reductions tend to delay marriage and childbirth. In contrast, we observe no significant impact on the marriage and fertility decisions of older women, nor any changes in sex-selective behavior across the general population. Further analysis reveals that this trade shock does not influence women’s participation in the labor force or their employment status, nor does it lead to increased gender segregation in the labor market. The observed delay in marriage and fertility among young women may be attributed to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and women staying longer at schools.