Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum nimmt voraussichtlich weiter ab
According to the medium-term outlook, the potential growth rate of the German economy in the coming years is likely to be lower than in the previous decade. Against the backdrop of the expected ageing of the population, the number of per-sons at working-age and the potential labor volume are expected to peak in the projection period. This will dampen potential growth. At the same time, the economy-wide capital stock is likely to grow somewhat slower than before, not least due to the recently rather weak investment dynamics. As the cyclical recovery of the German economy is likely to gain momentum only slowly, it will take some time for the currently negative output gap to close.
Kirsch, F., C. Krause and T. Schmidt (2024), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum nimmt voraussichtlich weiter ab. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 75, 2, 75-86