Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Produktionslücke bleibt in der mittleren Frist weitgehend geschlossen
In the following years, potential output growth will increasingly be dampened by the development of labor supply. The last two years of the projection period are expected to bring a decline in the trend labor volume. The decline in the working-age population due to the birth deficit will then no longer be compensated by net immigration. Nevertheless, GDP is expected to expand more slowly than potential output in the medium term. Foreign demand in particular is likely to remain weak in the medium term, and this will gradually have a dampening effect on domestic demand. The output gap is likely to be significantly reduced already this year. It is expected to close completely in the medium term.
Barabas, G., R. Jessen, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2019), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Produktionslücke bleibt in der mittleren Frist weitgehend geschlossen. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 70, 2, 21-31