Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2021: Anhaltende Überauslastung der Kapazitäten in Deutschland
In the medium term potential output growth will be primarily driven by an increase of the volume of work but also total factor productivity will be increased more than in previous years. Therefore we expect potential output to increase by 1.6% per year on average during the period 2016 to 2021. During this period the economic environment remains favorable. World trade is expected to be extended at a higher rate than in previous years. The ECB will maintain its expansionary monetary policy for some time to come. Under these circumstances we expect an annual average growth rate for GDP of 1.5% over the medium term. This implies that the output gap remains slightly positive over the medium term.
Barabas, G., R. Döhrn, H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2017), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2021: Anhaltende Überauslastung der Kapazitäten in Deutschland. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 68, 2, 17-34