Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zum Jahresende 2019: Industrie dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung
Economic activity in Germany stabilized at the end of the year. This is primarily due to exports, which are likely to expand somewhat stronger again towards the end of the year. However, this should not obscure the fact that trade conflicts and structural problems in the automotive industry continue to weigh on global demand, especially for industrial goods. Against this backdrop, there are no signs of a fundamental recovery in manufacturing. Domestic demand is supporting the German economy. Private consumption and public demand will continue to expand strongly. All in all, we expect GDP to grow by 0.5% in 2019. For 2020 we expect production to rise by 1.1% and for 2021 by 1.5%. It should be borne in mind that there will be a significant working day effect in the coming year. After adjusting for this effect production will only increase by 0.7%.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, A. Fuest, P. Jäger, R. Jessen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and K. Weyerstraß (2019), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zum Jahresende 2019: Industrie dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 70, 4 , 5-21