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Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Rasche wirtschaftliche Erholung bei Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie

The lockdown, which was introduced at the end of last year and motivated by a renewed rise in infections has interrupted the economic recovery. As early as the fourth quarter of 2020, store closures and probably also consumer restraint led to a significant decline in private consumption. Only strong foreign demand for German goods prevented a decline in output at the end of the year. The overall economic recovery at the end of 2020 should not hide the fact that there are important differences between the sectors of the economy and that the continued lockdown is threatening the existence of many companies. Even in the manufacturing sector, which has benefited from the rapid recovery in the global economy, particularly in merchandise trade, revenues are still below pre-crisis levels. In the trade and services sectors, the current situation is often much more difficult. This threatens to lead to a significant increase in the number of insolvencies in the course of this year. However, with the start of spring, the Corona-related restrictions are likely to be gradually lifted, so that the overall economic recovery in Germany will gain momentum. The most important prerequisite for this is that the current rise in new infections and the associated increase in the number of severe cases of the disease remain limited. The prioritized vaccination of the elderly against COVID-19 infection and the significantly higher number of corona tests are likely to contribute to this. Under this assumption, the lock-down should be gradually lifted. All in all, GDP will expand by 3.6% this year, with consumption and foreign trade in particular driving the overall economic recovery. In the coming year, the overall economic recovery is expected to slow to an annual average growth rate of 3.0%. The pre-crisis level is expected to be reached at the beginning of next year. In view of the maintenance of many infection control measures, which massively restrict the ability to practice a profession in some sectors of the economy, the number of people in work is likely to fall again in the first half of 2021 compared with the previous year's figure and only recover slowly over the course of the forecast period. The public budget deficit is expected to rise from just under 140 billion euros in 2020 to 151 in the current year. In 2022, the scaling back of measures to combat the Corona pandemic and its consequences and rising tax revenues as the economy recovers will help to bring the deficit down to just under 104 billion euros. Last year, public debt as defined by Maastricht rose relative to GDP from around 60% to around 70%. This year, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain roughly constant, falling to just under 69% in 2022.

Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, N. Benner, N. Isaak, R. Jessen and P. Schacht (2021), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Rasche wirtschaftliche Erholung bei Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 72, 1, 37-76

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