Corona-Krise belastet die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland
The coronavirus spread rapidly worldwide in the first half of the year. In response, a number of government measures have been taken to contain the pandemic, which are severely restricting social life and economic activity. In the meantime, the number of infections in the developed economies has fallen significantly. However, the coronavirus continues to spread strongly in emerging economies. Overall, we expect global economic production to pick up speed from the second half of the year onwards. The recovery in Europe and Asia is likely to be faster than in Latin America. However, economic output in most countries is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022. Economic activity in Germany has also been increasingly affected by the corona pandemic since the beginning of this year. First, the collapse in international demand for German products has led to a slowdown in production. In addition, following the appearance of the first Covid-19 cases in Germany at the end of January, the Federal Government has also taken drastic measures. Since the implementation of these measures, the spread of the virus in Germany has slowed down considerably and the number of confirmed new infections has been decreasing since the beginning of April. For this reason, since 20 April, the restrictions introduced have been gradually withdrawn. However, a complete abolition is still not foreseeable. The shutdown of economic activity has led to a massive slump in production. In view of the loosening of infection control measures that has meanwhile been implemented and the massive fiscal stimulus, the economic trough should now be over. However, the strength of the recovery will initially be determined to a large extent by the further course of infection in Germany and also worldwide. As long as the number of infections does not decline significantly worldwide, infection control measures will most likely remain in place and curb economic activity. It is therefore to be expected that world trade and, in connection with this, German exports will continue to expand weakly. In view of the more favourable development of infection figures in Germany, the economic recovery is likely to be driven primarily by domestic demand. Due to the continuing significant restrictions on economic activity, the pre-crisis level of production is not expected to be reached until the end of the forecast period. For this year, we expect GDP to decline by 5.8% on an annual average. In the coming year, production is likely to expand by an annual average of 6.4%.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, N. Isaak, P. Jäger, M. Micheli, P. Schacht and K. Weyerstraß (2020), Corona-Krise belastet die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 71, 2, 5-34