Immigration and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 Refugee Inflow to Germany
This paper investigates the effects of local exposure to refugees on electoral outcomes in the 2016 state election in Germany. Based on quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees across municipalities and unique data on refugee populations and their type of accommodation, I find that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal government parties. The electoral effects, however, are rather small and solely driven by refugees living in centralized accommodation, while no such effects are found for refugees living in decentralized accommodation.
Bredtmann, J. (2022), Immigration and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 Refugee Inflow to Germany. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 96, 103807