When Development Finance Spurs Entrepreneurship: New Evidence from 5 Million Projects Using a Machine Learning Classifier
Development finance increasingly funds entrepreneurship in developing countries, but evidence of its impact on entrepreneurship is mixed. Existing studies analyze total development finance flows as entrepreneurship-specific development finance data did not previously exist. By training and validating a machine-learning classifier on development finance project descriptions (2000–2022; 5 million projects; 97% accuracy), we introduce a scalable, replicable measure of specific entrepreneurship-support development finance (ESDF). Crucially, this measure allows us to assess which entrepreneurship margins respond to development finance. In a 19-year panel of 50 developing countries, two-way fixed-effects regressions show that higher ESDF is associated with higher entrepreneurial intentions, while total development finance is not. ESDF is not significantly linked to early-stage entrepreneurial activity, however, suggesting conversion bottlenecks in current entrepreneurial processes.