RWI Konjunkturberichte

This paper reviews the short term forecasts by national and international institutions for the Germany economy in 2005. The forecasts are compared to the first release data of the National Accounts, and it is shown, how forecast changed over time. Thus, the analyses may provide hints at the driving forces of the business cycle as wells as on developments that meant a surprise to forecasters. The latter might indicate at changes in the behavior of economic agents. The analyses show that GDP was already predicted quite well in first forecasts published. However, driving forces of the economy deviated much from those expected. In particular, the weak investment in equipment was unexpected. The fact the forecasts of exports were changed little in the light of major downward revisions of expected world trade growth deserves attention.

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