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RWI Konjunkturberichte

2021

Boris Blagov, Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, Florian Kirsch, Klaus Weyerstraß

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Unterschiede zwischen den Ländern werden größer

The global economy continues to recover from the recession caused by the pandemic. Following the vaccination progress, many advanced economies have eased the containment measures leading to a recovery in the previously restricted service sector. At the same time, economic activity, not least in the USA, is being supported by extensive monetary and fiscal policy measures. In the manufacturing sector, where the recovery is already on track, however, supply bottlenecks for primary products and sharply increased prices for raw materials and transport have recently dampened production. As the proportion of vaccinated people in the population is still very low in many emerging and developing countries, there is still a risk of a sharp increase in the infection figures, the effects of which will initially slow down the economic recovery of the countries concerned. Nevertheless, the world economy is expected to expand very strongly in the forecast period. As the economic recovery progresses, the momentum is likely to weaken over time. After 6.0% this year, GDP is expected to increase by 4.6% in the next before growth declines to 3.0% in 2023. In line, world trade should still exhibit a very high growth rate this year before the momentum slows down noticeably as well. The sharp rise in prices for energy and raw materials is contributing to significantly higher inflation rates in many regions this year. However, as the base effects resulting from the low comparative level during the first phase of the pandemic fade out and pandemic-related distortions in the production and supply chains are reduced, price dynamics are likely to slow down noticeably once more over the course of the forecast period. However, persistently high inflation rates pose a risk to further economic development, as central banks could be forced to tighten monetary policy prematurely.

Blagov, B. , D. Grozea-Helmenstein , F. Kirsch and K. Weyerstraß (2021), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Unterschiede zwischen den Ländern werden größer. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 72, 3, 5-36

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