RWI Konjunkturberichte

In spring 2022 the global economy is overshadowed by the war in the Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. This comes at a time when the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is gradually subsiding. After the tightening of restrictions in the light of rising infection numbers in fall and winter, many countries loosened or even abandoned the restrictions in February and March. Due to the war, the disturbances in global supply chains are likely to be resolved more slowly than previously anticipated. With Covid-19 related restrictions widely abolished, economic activity in the services sector is expected to increase further. However, there is likely a dampening effect of the high inflation. In particular prices for energy and many raw materials have increased strongly. This affects firms and households and forces central banks to react with a tightening of their monetary policy stance. Following the strong economic recovery in the previous year, growth of the global economy is expected to slow down in the forecast period. For the current year a growth rate of 4.0% is expected, followed by 3.2% in 2023. Inflation is expected to be very high this year, but to decline in the further course of the forecast period, not least due to base effects in energy prices. There are substantial risks to the outlook. They include a further escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic is not over yet. Especially if a new more dangerous variant of the virus emerged, the likelihood of new restrictions on economic activity would rise. The war and the pandemic could both affect global supply chains more negatively and contribute to further increases in prices. The swifter tightening of monetary policy could dampen economic activity more strongly and there might be risks for financial stability, in particular in some emerging economies.

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