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AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv

Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse

Emissions effects of the German vehicle tax: an empirical analysis

At the beginning of 2021, the CO2-dependent component of the vehicle tax was adjusted and made progressive, so that the tax burden for vehicles with high emission intensity increases disproportionately. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the reformed vehicle tax in terms of its incentive effect and CO2 saving potential using the discrete demand model of Berry et al. (1995). Our estimation results show that with about 21,000 fewer cars sold annually as a result and a reduction in mean CO2 intensity of 0.74 g/km, the annual CO2 emissions of newly purchased vehicles fall by about 60,000 tons. This moderate outcome is intuitive: an average tax increase of around 11 euros per annum does not have the steering effect that is needed to substantially reduce emissions. Our simulation results of a fictitious vehicle taxation with more progressive tax rates assumed here, which would result in an average tax increase of around 90 euros, would have significantly stronger effects and reduce the average CO2 emissions per kilometer of new cars by some 5g/km and reduce the number of new registrations by around 195,000 passenger cars. As a result, around 450,000 tons of CO2 might be saved annually. Nevertheless, a comparison with the annual emissions of the car fleet in Germany of around 100 million tons shows that even the effects of the fictitious progressive vehicle tax with higher tax rates would be very limited.

Flintz, J., M. Frondel and M. Horvath (2022), Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse: Emissions effects of the German vehicle tax: an empirical analysis. AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, 16, 3-4, 255-276

DOI: 10.1007/s11943-022-00310-w